Merger Monday strikes again as M&T follows through on its intentions and agrees to acquire Peoples Bank of CT. More community banking with scale in the Northeastern states from Boston to Buffalo to NYC metro to Baltimore region. CRE concentrations fall a bit, and M&T's higer FCF helps both. Sell on M&T benchmark bonds, Hold on Stock. Regulatory and counterparty risk Very Low and Low, respectively.
CCAR II gets banks back into the stock buyback game even with higher losses. But some may be delayed due to their regulatory consent orders like WFC and Citi. Credit cards hit big banks more. CRE hits regionals more. More a driver of stock prices than the rest of the capital structure, although perpetual preferreds should rally more.
Dr. Scott & crew discusses the major U.S. trends with new President Biden calling the shots. Touches on Fed and EM investment flows. Deeper dives on Germany and Venezuela.