Bank of America is preparing for a long recession and boosted its reserves for CECL and the virus outbreaks. Claims it should perform better than in the past cycles as it raised consumer loan quality. Sell Stock, Sell benchmark Bonds. Raise Counterparty and Regulatory Risk to Medium range.
US regional banks will suffer from the decline in lending and transaction activity and the rise in loan losses despite government/central bank stimulus. Capital One most at risk with large card book. Citizens Financial and Regions in the large bank sector with runaway other consumer loan growth at risk.
Dr. Scott reviews the US economic weakness as record numbers of Americans are unemployed, and it looks like a slow recovery into 2021. And interplays the political friction as US presidential electioneering ramps up and the debate on US state budget deficits and underfunded state pensions. Europe fiscal challenges and difficulties funding through as well.