Bank of America is preparing for a long recession and boosted its reserves for CECL and the virus outbreaks. Claims it should perform better than in the past cycles as it raised consumer loan quality. Sell Stock, Sell benchmark Bonds. Raise Counterparty and Regulatory Risk to Medium range.
US regional banks will suffer from the decline in lending and transaction activity and the rise in loan losses despite government/central bank stimulus. Capital One most at risk with large card book. Citizens Financial and Regions in the large bank sector with runaway other consumer loan growth at risk.
Dr. Scott reviews the economic landscape as the George Floyd demonstrations lead to violence and looting that further hurts small businesses that have been devastated by the pandemic quarantine conditions. And overlays the US-China tensions over Hong Kong and other pandemic issues. Then food insecurity globally, with inflationary effects. Finally, India's downgrade by Moody's and thoes effects.