AmEx has a new CEO, but faces old risks as the high end credit card spender is the most sought after by big bank & technology mobile wallet competitors. Sell across capital structure with stock overvalued & bond spreads tight. Counterparty & regulatory risks are low. AXP AXP AXP AXP AXP AXP AXP
Comerica illustrates the power of Fed rate hikes to its Net Interest Income growth as loan volumes were still tepid. Move to Buy on Stock & Buy on Bonds. Risk-reg is low. CMA CMA CMA CMA CMA CMA CMA
BNP showed more revenues progress in 2017, but hampered by low rates in Europe. Recent equity volatility has backed up some spreads leading to a Buy on 3Y debt. Stock still a Sell. BNP BNP BNP BNP BNP BNP BNP
DB continues to underwhelm and more pressures on CEO to get it done or move on. In-country consolidation merger with Commerzbank best course to create growth drivers. Sell on most of capital structure. DB DB DB DB DB DB DB
Big northern regional banks also enjoyed NIM expansion like their southern regional peers. More loan growth in commercial lease and commercial real estate. We review KEY, FITB, CMA.
Big southern regional banks benefited from net interest margin expansion while loan growth was largely disappointing. More Fed rate hikes should continue that earnings/EPS progress. We review BB&T, Regions & SunTrust.
BAC is back in the loan growth saddle again as it has demonstrated broader based dynamics. First time since the pre-credit crisis days, but on a much more wholesome basis. Buy Stock, Sell Debt that has tightened. Move to Low on Risk-Regulatory indicators. BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC
USB gets more buoyancy from the rising rates climate that lifted its NIM across higher loan growth. Fees were flattish on lower mtg. banking, but payments and inv. mgt were strong. Buy on Stock, Bonds at fair value. Counterparty & regulatory risk Low. USB USB USB USB USB USB USB
MS continues its renaissance as a more stable broker versus GS. Wealth mgt benefitting from streamlines and equity bull markets. Fixed income less prone to slippage. Equity business strong. Investment Mgt. still a work in process. Buy on Stock & Bonds. Developing lower counterparty and systemic risk profile. MS MS MS MS MS MS MS
GS continues to wrestle with FICC funk, but banking & private equity investing keeps its economic margins robust. Leveraged lending is a major driver as it reinvents on consumer lending side too. Buy on Stock & Bonds. Medium counterparty & regulatory risk. GS GS GS GS GS GS GS