Just when you thought CS was stabilizing, another CEO change occurred. But more abruptly than the last couple of rounds. Still, there is positive strategic and balance sheet improvement that the next CEO can leverage. Buy Bonds, Sell Stock, Improved Regulatory/Counterparty risk to High from Very High.
Barclays showed more resilience in capital markets and parts of card banking. Cost cutting still the key. And, it is resetting its targets to build in more revenues growth in payments, transaction banking and investment & advice. All crowded fields that have other banks looking to do same. Still a Buy on Stock, benchmark Bonds. Counterparty risk still High due to Very High systemic risk.
SocGen benefited from higher loan growth across its domestic and European segments. And rebounding capital markets helped too. Still there was a pickup in the net cost of risk in its higher octane international finance segment. Still high systemic risk.
BNP had some good operating performance as loan and product volumes increased despite negative rates environment in Europe. Still, the systemics are high and further progress could reduce our concerns. Still Sell on Stock and benchmark bonds.
Our Part 2 on Goldman Sachs explores the certainty of achieving its return goals. Looks like the old existing businesses along investment banking and global markets are more compelling than the new initiatives in transaction/consumer banking.
Deutsche Bank hit its cost/capital goals, but revenue growth in strategic areas still rather elusive. Bumping along the bottom with some stabilization. Still Sell Stock, Bonds. Very High counterparty/regulatory risk.
GS Investor Day had much to say on its growth initiatives and investment spending to get there. Still, strong competition should be challenging from other bank/asset manager/FinTech brands across cards/consumer banking, transaction banking, mass market high net worth asset management .
WFC CEO Scharf asking for more time to straighten out the banking situation. Even after three years of restructuring and repositioning. We remain cautious with an eye on Investor Loans. Sell on Stock and benchmark Bonds. Counterparty risk is Medium level.
MS CEO Gorman made a strong case for future revenues growth with a conservative balance sheet. Still there is tough competition, but MS should hit its 5 year goals. Buy on Stock and benchmark bonds. Counterparty risk is Medium.
BAC scrambles to preserve NII as rates pressures take hold. Loan & deposit growth, client activity and ALM derivatives should help to boost NII towards 2H2020. Buy Bonds, Sell Stock, Low Counterparty Risk.