Regions Financial suffers from regional bank-itis from its name to its operations. Poor positioning in "Deep South" leads to various whipsaw cycles whether weather-related (Katrina), man-made oil-rig disasters (Deep Water Horizon), or economic like condos on Gulf and 2015 energy pull-back in TX. Sell capital stack as fully valued. Low risk-regulatory profile. RF RF RF Regions Regions Regions
AmEx kicks off 10K season for specialty finance and has a litany of payment system worries. Plus comments on Brexit, the Euro & Euro Zone & immigration barriers. Sell capital structure, low counterparty and systemic risk.AXP AXP AXP AmEx AmEx AmEx American Express American Express American Express
State Street is at strategic cross-roads as its hallmark businesses are shunted by bigger bank players, pricing pressures from low rates and big customers, shift to low margin funds management and regulatory costs that hurt its income statement more. Sell stock and overpriced bonds. Hold counterparty & regulatory exposures. State Street State Street State Street
SocGen is the #1 Equities Derivatives player, and we diagnose the risk factors that could add to volatility in its systemic bank risk story. Sell across the Stakeholder Stack.
BNP showed little operating unit growth in retail banking and capital markets. International finance was growth driver. Still no transparency on equity derivatives and contribution to trading. Sell across capital stack as it is the most systemic bank in Europe. bnp bnp bnp bnp bnp bnp
Deutsche Bank wants to turn around, but the busienss units say no-way, and the capital shortfall persists for global bank systemic concerns. Still a Stakeholder Stack Sell across the capital structure and risk-regulatory stacks. DB DB DB Deutsche Deutsche Deutsche
Citi continues its makeover as Holdings falls by reporting wayside. High free cash flow shows lack of investing opps, which could re-awaken breakup the bank risks.
Goldman Sachs stock rallied the second most since the US presidential election. We hone in on reasons why from prop trading to VC/PE investing. More counterparty risk as it lenghtens derivatives duration. Buy bonds/stock.
Morgan Stanley keeps chugging along on its reinvention as a global wealth management focused firm with a broker/dealer attached. Should not step back into prop trading in a big way, unlike GS. So less Trump regulatory stack roll-back pickup. MS MS MS Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley
JPMorgan sets the bar high in overall performance and economic earnings. It should get acquisitive in Europe to drive the stockval. Ok for rest of Stakeholder Stack. JPM JPM JPM JPMorgan JPMorgan JPMorgan