JPMorgan gave its 2021 outlook in its 4Q20 release and is looking for greater technological prowess with commensurate investment spending. Needs to compete against Big Tech, growing FinTech players and foreign bank competition mostly from China banks. Move to Buy on Stock, Sell on benchmark bonds. Regulatory and counterparty risks decline to Very Low and Low, respectively with vaccine rollouts.
Citi is playing three-card monte on it operating/risk management overhaul as it trys to get the focus on the new CEO, instead of the breakdown in its risk mgt and infrastructure needs. Sell on Stock and benchmark Bonds. Regulatory & counterparty risk back to High.
HBAN pulls the trigger on the in-region acquisition of TCF Financial. We explore the economic earnings and capital benefits of the deal to HBAN.
U.S. Bancorp has lots of strategic options as it decides to go more digital banking/alliance(s) or jump back into physical bank M&A. We believe that it has the luxury to wait out better bank M&A valuaitons. Buy on Stock, Sell on benchmark bonds, Low risk indicators in regulatory and counterparty risk.
Wells Fargo CEO sounded chipper on GS Financial Services zoom call. Still, there is too much wood to chop in its restructuring to be so sanguine. Still a Sell on Stock, Perpetual Preferred Stock, and benchmark Bonds. Regulatory risk is Very High and counterparty risk is High.
Truist loaded up on perpetual preferred stock YTD to keep the regulators at bay as it deals with merger cost savings delays and an overleveraged balance sheet going into pandemic. Catching up on all fronts. Still commond dividend may be more at risk versus other big regionals. Sell Stock and benchmark Bond, Preferred stock fully priced. Very Low regulatory risk and Low counterparty risk.
Regions Financial continues to stay independent as the latest PNC action bypassed it. We analyse and update our regional bank M&A stratego to see why and when it will be purchased. Seems like a while. Sell capital structure (equity & debt) and counterparty & regulatory indicators are High risk.
PNC pulls the trigger and bags BBVA USA as the stars aligned for both. Still it shows that other big and weaker US regional banks not as motivated to sell hoping for vaccine relief and resumption of normal economics. Sell on PNC capital structure (stock and bonds) and counterparty and regulatory risk is Low.
Citizens Financial is not out of the pandemic and credit cycle woods as it continues to pretend it is in the growth mode; when it very much needs added capital to bolster the balance sheet. Still too much credit quality pressures even without a pandemic. Sell on stock, benchmark bonds, and preferred stock. Regulatory and counterparty risk stays at Medium levels which is high for a regional bank given weak economic earnings.
Capital One is hanging on by a hair as government stimulous support has kept its credit quality together. But it could easily humpty dumpty fall and crash into millions of credit loss pieces. Sell capital stack (Stock & Bonds), Counterparty risk to Medium-to-High. Regulatory risk Medium.