Ferroglobe (GSM) is a flexible metal alloy production company that is able to expand its cashflow as the pandemic conditions and market pricing improves. Can weather many bankruptcy scenarios given low entry dollar price. Viola Risk a Buy on its 9.375% Sr. Notes with a YTW of 155%. Has Very High VERT indicators for Very Positive event risk attributes.
Goldman Sachs (GS) used to be at the top of Mt. Olympus as a god amongst mere mortal broker-dealers/investment bankers. Now it is pin-balling off the regulatory bumpers as it tries to flipper its way to more sustainable performance. We do not see it. Sell capital and regulatory-risk stacks.
BAC is treading water hard as deposit spread pool is draining away. Lots of exertion and frustration as cost of its core deposit system offseting potential return on invested capital. Sell entire capital stack, although Stock could get attractive again if valuations improve even more. Counterparty risk and Regulatory risk are both Medium.
Wells Fargo fell apart as it cut its dividend by 80% and bemoaned its situation once again. The market has run out of patience as this under regulated bank has many credit black holes, poorly managed ALM/risk mgt. Poor economic earnings hurts ability to generate organic capital. Strong Sell on Stock, Sell on bonds/preferred stock, High Risk for both Counterparty and Regulatory exposures.
Citi did well on the 2020 DFAST Stress Test, but 2Q20 results were less uplifting as North America Consumer shows credit, revenue weakness. International Consumer will worsen even though it looks to hold in. Buy on Stock, Sell on debt, but Buy on Perpetual Pfd. Regulatory risk is High and Counterparty Risk Medium-to-High.
JPM exhibits balance sheet and economic earnings heft as it lowers its economic outlook, but leaps over regulatory capital minimums. Sell on debt but Buy on Perpetual Preferreds. Strong Buy on Stock. Regulatory Risk Medium, Counterparty Risk Low-to-Medium.
Bank of America is preparing for a long recession and boosted its reserves for CECL and the virus outbreaks. Claims it should perform better than in the past cycles as it raised consumer loan quality. Sell Stock, Sell benchmark Bonds. Raise Counterparty and Regulatory Risk to Medium range.
We provide an in-depth report outlining Wells Fargo's serious exposures to commercial real estate, other at-risk sectors like oil & gas, and CLOs. We first were highly concerned about CLOs last July. Rating agency downgrades will worsen these valuations. Sell on Stock, benchmark Bonds. Regulatory & Counterparty risk rise to High from Low to Medium.
Viola Risk presents a comprehesive review of Citigroup and utilizes economic earnings and systemic capital shortfall analysis to show its higher risk levels vs. the other Big 4 banks. Sell Stock, be choosy on Buys on Bonds. Regulatory risk High, Counterparty Medium-to-High.
JPMorgan was the first big bank to show the higher reserve action impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic. While there are still many questions as to length and severity, JPM has the economic earnings strength, reserves and capital to weather the difficult environment. Sell on Bonds, Buy Stock, Counterparty & Regulatory risk is Low-to-Medium.