M&T Bank's 2019 10K shows the power of its CRE franchise that continues to grow. Recreational finance and autos are fast growing consumer lending sectors as well. We explore the concentration risks and hedging/derivative strategies to lock in loan yields and preserve margins.
MS fills in the online trading and deposits gaps with its acquisition of E*TRADE. Kind of pricey, but fits well into their strategic goals. Still a Buy on Stock and benchmark bonds. Counterparty risk stays at Medium level.
AmEx adapting well to the digital playing field and millennial generation preferences in co-branding rewards. Still it remains quite competitive and the cost to play is high. We are a Buy on Stock, Sell on benchmark Bonds. Counterparty/Regulatory Risk is Low to Very Low.
Just when you thought CS was stabilizing, another CEO change occurred. But more abruptly than the last couple of rounds. Still, there is positive strategic and balance sheet improvement that the next CEO can leverage. Buy Bonds, Sell Stock, Improved Regulatory/Counterparty risk to High from Very High.
Barclays showed more resilience in capital markets and parts of card banking. Cost cutting still the key. And, it is resetting its targets to build in more revenues growth in payments, transaction banking and investment & advice. All crowded fields that have other banks looking to do same. Still a Buy on Stock, benchmark Bonds. Counterparty risk still High due to Very High systemic risk.
SocGen benefited from higher loan growth across its domestic and European segments. And rebounding capital markets helped too. Still there was a pickup in the net cost of risk in its higher octane international finance segment. Still high systemic risk.
BNP had some good operating performance as loan and product volumes increased despite negative rates environment in Europe. Still, the systemics are high and further progress could reduce our concerns. Still Sell on Stock and benchmark bonds.
Our Part 2 on Goldman Sachs explores the certainty of achieving its return goals. Looks like the old existing businesses along investment banking and global markets are more compelling than the new initiatives in transaction/consumer banking.
Deutsche Bank hit its cost/capital goals, but revenue growth in strategic areas still rather elusive. Bumping along the bottom with some stabilization. Still Sell Stock, Bonds. Very High counterparty/regulatory risk.
GS Investor Day had much to say on its growth initiatives and investment spending to get there. Still, strong competition should be challenging from other bank/asset manager/FinTech brands across cards/consumer banking, transaction banking, mass market high net worth asset management .