Industry Reports

US Regionals: Coping with Covid-19, Excess Risk Spots

03/31/2020

US regional banks will suffer from the decline in lending and transaction activity and the rise in loan losses despite government/central bank stimulus. Capital One most at risk with large card book. Citizens Financial and Regions in the large bank sector with runaway other consumer loan growth at risk.​ 


Systemic Risk is Back! Most Vulnerable GSIBs: US, Canadian, European?

03/22/2020

Viola Risk stress tests for big declines in economic earnings as the economy contracts due to the Covid-19 virus. US banks look the strongest counterparties but will still be impacted. Canadians can weaken further than US. Europeans have dismal protections against earnings dropoffs. Europeans presented most counterparty and systemic risk. 


COVID-19 Virus Rages Through Public Health & Financial Markets

03/15/2020

COVID-19 is a wildcard event for public health, the real economy and financial markets. We explore the impacts from a material GDP contraction and impacts to asset volumes and credit deterioration. Spreads have gapped 150 bps for US big banks, but still not time to Buy. Counterparty & Regulatory risk amplified to Medium to High levels


Big Banks: Fed Uber Cuts, Will Margins Melt?

03/05/2020

The stock/bond markets have been rocked by Fed rate cuts related to the virus. We look at the impacts to margins and interest income for the big US banks. JPMorgan and BAC less impacted but still difficult. Wells Fargo is most stressed with Citigroup a mixed bag. 


Regional Bank Roundup Part 1: Mergers v. Digitalization; USB & PNC

02/07/2020

US regional banks are still weighing the "merger versus go it alone strategy" with digital banking investment spending a critical part of the calculus. We explore how USB and PNC are contemplating these dynamics in the wake of the Truist deal that recently closed.


Systemic Siren Song: 2020 Outlook: Consumer Risk Defies Gravity, How Long?

01/03/2020

Consumer lending has been the high margin business for banks and other lenders. We explore the potential inflection points that could lead to higher losses by credit sector and user group. 


Systemic Sirens Song: Outlook 2020: Will Credit Ever Crack?

12/30/2019

2020 could be another year of credit hibernation. But investors need to stay on top of the relevant trigger points deciding when to make strategic decisions. US bank spreads seem too rich, though equities could rally higher in low rates environment. We explore systemic risk triggers in US, Europe and Asia.


DFAST 2019: Banks Pass, No Vol Scenarios, No Street Cred

07/10/2019

DFAST 2019 waved the white flag for shareholder payouts manna. Still, if every bank passes what is the value of the tests? We explore the inadequacies of identifying the real world risks across volatility, leveraged lending, structure and securitization risks that the stress tests may miss. 


VRA Talks: Consumer Risk Sphinx, Will Millennies Sink?

06/03/2019

VantageScore, the #2 US consumer credit scoring company, recently interviewed David Hendler for its "5 Questions" monthly newsletter column. David discussed his US Consumer Risk Outlook, the validity of credit scores in predicting future downturns, and how the Millennials should credit trend given their "thin-file" history. 


US Regional Bank M&A: Economic Strong Devouring the Weak, Who’s Next?

02/11/2019

Regional bank takeovers heating up in the US, but is it necessary as App Smartphone Banking is making huge in-roads? We explore the key factors in the M&A check-list to see the real economic earnings Buyers & Sellers. And those that may still hang out under the lamp-posts. 


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