LIBOR deliberations &discussions have been as coherent as a pub imbibed dissertation on alternative views as to the start of the universe. In other words, another Federal Reserve bobbling of the goals and aspirations for a more equitable benchmark rate market. And wasn't that supposed to be the improvement after the LIBOR scandals. Yikes again. Thanks Fed!
Equity markets and related options for single stocks and indices have been rocked by the Big Tech stock/options squeeze undertaken by Softbank. There will be big negative impacts to providers of equity derivative protection as the big banks and brokers in the US and Europe get snagged in the Softbank stock snafu.
A new generation of investors are learning the equity valuation lessons the hard way as unrealistic and way too high equity valuations are coming crashing down in the Big Tech stock/options world. And there is spillover effects to Big Banks equity/debt & counterparty/regulatory risk as these banks provided the volatility chum that the Japanese Whale craved. Please join us for this excellent capital structure webcast jointly presented by New Constructs (our equity valuation specialist) and Viola Risk Advisors.
Peter Plaut is our Viola Risk Advisors collaborator covering Global Multi-Asset Strategies across investment grade corporate bonds, high yield & distressed bonds, real estate development projects, litigation finance, toll roads and other illiquid private placements. His debut article discusses the hoped for recovery in the global hospitality industry.
The virus has stressed the financial system with systemic risk never seen before. Most bigger banks can survive with capital structure intact. COF, GS should have major difficulties maintaining common stock dividend. Perpetual preferreds are a better investment play. Expect major survivor mergers with Citi, Walmart, Amazon, PNC, USB as the stronger hands.
US regional banks will suffer from the decline in lending and transaction activity and the rise in loan losses despite government/central bank stimulus. Capital One most at risk with large card book. Citizens Financial and Regions in the large bank sector with runaway other consumer loan growth at risk.
Viola Risk stress tests for big declines in economic earnings as the economy contracts due to the Covid-19 virus. US banks look the strongest counterparties but will still be impacted. Canadians can weaken further than US. Europeans have dismal protections against earnings dropoffs. Europeans presented most counterparty and systemic risk.
COVID-19 is a wildcard event for public health, the real economy and financial markets. We explore the impacts from a material GDP contraction and impacts to asset volumes and credit deterioration. Spreads have gapped 150 bps for US big banks, but still not time to Buy. Counterparty & Regulatory risk amplified to Medium to High levels.
The stock/bond markets have been rocked by Fed rate cuts related to the virus. We look at the impacts to margins and interest income for the big US banks. JPMorgan and BAC less impacted but still difficult. Wells Fargo is most stressed with Citigroup a mixed bag.
US regional banks are still weighing the "merger versus go it alone strategy" with digital banking investment spending a critical part of the calculus. We explore how USB and PNC are contemplating these dynamics in the wake of the Truist deal that recently closed.