CCAR 2018 saw most big banks pull the rip-cord on capital returns, greater than 100% of earnings. While the big brokers were tempered. JPM shows most growth prospects and therefore tempered its plan below NOPAT. DB USA gets rejected on qualitative, but when will negative news end? We explore.
We move onto the C&I loan loss trends as capital market players and biggest regionals show more loan losses. Mainstream regionals' losses up modestly. JPMorgan an outlier. Capital One too.
DFAST showed capital was prepared for losses. Still the credit loss trends more instructive for future fundamental risk trend analysis. Counterparty & Cards in focus.
Viola Risk Advisors hosted a conference call with Jack Foster of W.S. Foster Associates which conducts credit training seminars. Jack offers his opinions on the holistic nature of credit risk evaluation from key perspectives: rating agency, regulators, commercial & investment banks.
Fifth Third did its first big bank deal in a decade and set off the regional bank merger mania views across the media/sell-side analysts. Using economic earnings analysis, we believe this was a desperation move to find growth. Should meet fierce traditional and FinTech lending pressures. FITB FITB FITB FITB FITB FITB FITB FITB PNC PNC PNC PNC PNC PNC PNC USB USB USB USB USB USB USB KEY KEY KEY KEY KEY KEY KEY
Whether FinTech borrowers will be the "fountain of youth" profits for FinTech lenders is still up for debate. We discuss positive findings from the recent NYU conference on Household Finance and the competitive forces at hand.
BAC & Citi gettting their ALM acts together with better loan volumes. BAC has lowest cost of deposits, Citi sees loan rebound. Both still needs to do more loan throughput. Citi Citi Citi Citi Citi Citi Citi Citi BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC
With the Fed raising rates again, it is useful to take another look at asset-liability management of interest rate risk. The extremes in management seem to be JPM and WFC with the big NY bank in a much stronger position characterized by core loan growth. Still rates impacts matter. WFC WFC WFC WFC WFC WFC WFC JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM
10K overload sets in as we compare the Big 4 US banks across ALM prowess. JPM still the one to beat, though BAC is narrowing the gap. Citi showing improvment but weighed down by cost of funding. WFC disappoints across metrics giving us more negative vibes. CITI CITI CITI CITI CITI CITI CITI JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC WFC WFC WFC WFC WFC WFC WFC
We enter 2018, with a look at systemic stability across the major banking systems in the US & Canada/Europe/Japan/China/Australia. We tie together systemic stability and economic earnings to derive a sense of systemic stability persistance. Overall, US & Canada are strongest & safest systems with co-reinforcing attributes. Europe & Japan are shaky. Australia has good comfort zone and China is a mystery with high systemic impacts.