Industry Reports

10K Takes: BAC & Citi ALMs, Tweeners Need to Mature with Quality Loan Growth

04/02/2018

BAC & Citi gettting their ALM acts together with better loan volumes. BAC has lowest cost of deposits, Citi sees loan rebound. Both still needs to do more loan throughput. Citi Citi Citi Citi Citi Citi Citi Citi BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC  BAC


10K Takes: JPM & WFC, Loan Drivers v. Rate Takers

03/22/2018

With the Fed raising rates again, it is useful to take another look at asset-liability management of interest rate risk. The extremes in management seem to be JPM and WFC with the big NY bank in a much stronger position characterized by core loan growth. Still rates impacts matter.  WFC WFC WFC WFC WFC WFC WFC JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM


Systemic Siren: US Big Bank 10K Takes: ALM Prowess in NII Generation

03/06/2018

10K overload sets in as we compare the Big 4 US banks across ALM prowess. JPM still the one to beat, though BAC is narrowing the gap. Citi showing improvment but weighed down by cost of funding. WFC disappoints across metrics giving us more negative vibes. CITI CITI CITI CITI CITI CITI CITI JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC WFC WFC WFC WFC WFC WFC WFC 


Systemic Sirens Song: Capital Shortfalls, N. America on Top

01/08/2018

We enter 2018, with a look at systemic stability across the major banking systems in the US & Canada/Europe/Japan/China/Australia. We tie together systemic stability and economic earnings to derive a sense of systemic stability persistance. Overall, US & Canada are strongest & safest systems with co-reinforcing attributes. Europe & Japan are shaky. Australia has good comfort zone and China is a mystery with high systemic impacts. 


Systemic Sirens Song: 2018 Systemic Shifts, FinTech Fusion or Fissures?

11/28/2017

FinTech is the buzz-word of the last half of the decade as it presents tectonic shifts for banking industry profitability. Friend or Foe, it is not a Fad, and will introduce systemic and other risks to banking company stakeholders. Citi Citi Citi Citi Citi Citi Citi BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM WFC WFC WFC WFC WFC WFC WFC


Systemic Sirens Song: 2018 Systemic Shifts, Consumerís Creeping Crevices

11/27/2017

Part 2 of our Viola Risk 2018 Outlook takes a deep dive on consumer loan dynamics across cards, autos, student loans. Can't wait for it to go bad to prepare. Citi Citi Citi Citi Citi Citi Citi BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM DFS DFS DFS DFS DFS DFS DFS COF COF COF COT COF COF COF AXP AXP AXP AXP AXP AXP AXP SYF SYF SYF SYF SYF SYF SYF SYF


Systemic Sirens Song: 2018 Systemic Shifts, Europe still on Fault Lines

11/22/2017

Pillar 1 of Systemic Risk Shifts reviews the overall systemic risk landscape as Europe remains vulnerable while US & Canada skate around them. Japan a weak region too. DB DB DB DB DB DB DB CS CS CS CS CS CS CS BARCLAYS BARCLAYS BARCLAY BARCLAYS BARCLAYS BARCLAYS BARCLAYS BNP BNP BNP BNP BNP BNP BNP SOCGEN SOCGEN SOCGEN SOCGEN SOCGEN SOCGEN SOCGEN RBS RBS RBS RBS RBS RBS RBS HSBC HSBC HSBC HSBC HSBC HSBC HSBC UBS UBS UBS UBS UBS UBS UBS SANTANDER SANTANDER SANTANDER SANTANDER SANTANDER SANTANDER SANTANDER JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM CITI CITI CITI CITI CIT CITI CITI BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC GS GS GS GS GS GS GS MS MS MS MS MS MS MS RBC RBC RBC RBC RBC RBC RBC TD TD TD TD TD TD TD COF COF COF COF COF COF COF COF


Systemic Sirens Song: Deutsche Bk Resurrection, Mapping It

11/20/2017

We showcase a bit of our Viola Risk conference with a review of how Deutsche Bank can resurrect its fortunes with radical merger with Commerzbank. Buy on AT1s as bail-in risk subsides. DB DB DB DB DB DB DB CMZ CMZ CMZ CMZ CMZ CMZ


Systemic Sirens Song: FinTech: Friend, Foe or Fad?

10/09/2017

FinTech & shadow banking is snarling at the traditional bank gates as the barbarians seek to ransack through the profit margins of the old-school players. Still in early-innings, but strong trends emerging. 


Systemic Sirens Song: Deutscheís Dynamism Dearth

10/02/2017

Red alert is in the air again as equity markets get fed up with DB's lack of earnings visibility in the fixed income area, investment banking, asset management, and the weakling Postbank. CEO Cryan getting mega-pressure to perform or to be ejected. Not much he or any management team can do given DB’s weak playing position.


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