Industry Reports

DFAST 2018, Part 1: Banks Pass, Counterparty/Trading & Card Losses Lead

06/22/2018

DFAST showed capital was prepared for losses. Still the credit loss trends more instructive for future fundamental risk trend analysis. Counterparty & Cards in focus.


U.S. Banking Industry & Credit Risk Gatekeepers: Holistic Credit Risk Evaluation

06/08/2018

Viola Risk Advisors hosted a conference call with Jack Foster of W.S. Foster Associates which conducts credit training seminars. Jack offers his opinions on the holistic nature of credit risk evaluation from key perspectives: rating agency, regulators, commercial & investment banks.


US Regional Bank Chat: Merger Mania or Growth Desperation?

06/01/2018

Fifth Third did its first big bank deal in a decade and set off the regional bank merger mania views across the media/sell-side analysts. Using economic earnings analysis, we believe this was a desperation move to find growth. Should meet fierce traditional and FinTech lending pressures. FITB FITB FITB FITB FITB FITB FITB FITB PNC PNC PNC PNC PNC PNC PNC USB USB USB USB USB USB USB KEY KEY KEY KEY KEY KEY KEY


Risk Mgt Chat: Are FinTech Borrowers Better?

05/14/2018

Whether FinTech borrowers will be the "fountain of youth" profits for FinTech lenders is still up for debate. We discuss positive findings from the recent NYU conference on Household Finance and the competitive forces at hand.


10K Takes: BAC & Citi ALMs, Tweeners Need to Mature with Quality Loan Growth

04/02/2018

BAC & Citi gettting their ALM acts together with better loan volumes. BAC has lowest cost of deposits, Citi sees loan rebound. Both still needs to do more loan throughput. Citi Citi Citi Citi Citi Citi Citi Citi BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC  BAC


10K Takes: JPM & WFC, Loan Drivers v. Rate Takers

03/22/2018

With the Fed raising rates again, it is useful to take another look at asset-liability management of interest rate risk. The extremes in management seem to be JPM and WFC with the big NY bank in a much stronger position characterized by core loan growth. Still rates impacts matter.  WFC WFC WFC WFC WFC WFC WFC JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM


Systemic Siren: US Big Bank 10K Takes: ALM Prowess in NII Generation

03/06/2018

10K overload sets in as we compare the Big 4 US banks across ALM prowess. JPM still the one to beat, though BAC is narrowing the gap. Citi showing improvment but weighed down by cost of funding. WFC disappoints across metrics giving us more negative vibes. CITI CITI CITI CITI CITI CITI CITI JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC WFC WFC WFC WFC WFC WFC WFC 


Systemic Sirens Song: Capital Shortfalls, N. America on Top

01/08/2018

We enter 2018, with a look at systemic stability across the major banking systems in the US & Canada/Europe/Japan/China/Australia. We tie together systemic stability and economic earnings to derive a sense of systemic stability persistance. Overall, US & Canada are strongest & safest systems with co-reinforcing attributes. Europe & Japan are shaky. Australia has good comfort zone and China is a mystery with high systemic impacts. 


Systemic Sirens Song: 2018 Systemic Shifts, FinTech Fusion or Fissures?

11/28/2017

FinTech is the buzz-word of the last half of the decade as it presents tectonic shifts for banking industry profitability. Friend or Foe, it is not a Fad, and will introduce systemic and other risks to banking company stakeholders. Citi Citi Citi Citi Citi Citi Citi BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM WFC WFC WFC WFC WFC WFC WFC


Systemic Sirens Song: 2018 Systemic Shifts, Consumerís Creeping Crevices

11/27/2017

Part 2 of our Viola Risk 2018 Outlook takes a deep dive on consumer loan dynamics across cards, autos, student loans. Can't wait for it to go bad to prepare. Citi Citi Citi Citi Citi Citi Citi BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM DFS DFS DFS DFS DFS DFS DFS COF COF COF COT COF COF COF AXP AXP AXP AXP AXP AXP AXP SYF SYF SYF SYF SYF SYF SYF SYF


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