Industry Reports

Systemic Sirens Song: 2018 Systemic Shifts, Europe still on Fault Lines

11/22/2017

Pillar 1 of Systemic Risk Shifts reviews the overall systemic risk landscape as Europe remains vulnerable while US & Canada skate around them. Japan a weak region too. DB DB DB DB DB DB DB CS CS CS CS CS CS CS BARCLAYS BARCLAYS BARCLAY BARCLAYS BARCLAYS BARCLAYS BARCLAYS BNP BNP BNP BNP BNP BNP BNP SOCGEN SOCGEN SOCGEN SOCGEN SOCGEN SOCGEN SOCGEN RBS RBS RBS RBS RBS RBS RBS HSBC HSBC HSBC HSBC HSBC HSBC HSBC UBS UBS UBS UBS UBS UBS UBS SANTANDER SANTANDER SANTANDER SANTANDER SANTANDER SANTANDER SANTANDER JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM CITI CITI CITI CITI CIT CITI CITI BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC GS GS GS GS GS GS GS MS MS MS MS MS MS MS RBC RBC RBC RBC RBC RBC RBC TD TD TD TD TD TD TD COF COF COF COF COF COF COF COF


Systemic Sirens Song: Deutsche Bk Resurrection, Mapping It

11/20/2017

We showcase a bit of our Viola Risk conference with a review of how Deutsche Bank can resurrect its fortunes with radical merger with Commerzbank. Buy on AT1s as bail-in risk subsides. DB DB DB DB DB DB DB CMZ CMZ CMZ CMZ CMZ CMZ


Systemic Sirens Song: FinTech: Friend, Foe or Fad?

10/09/2017

FinTech & shadow banking is snarling at the traditional bank gates as the barbarians seek to ransack through the profit margins of the old-school players. Still in early-innings, but strong trends emerging. 


Systemic Sirens Song: Deutsche’s Dynamism Dearth

10/02/2017

Red alert is in the air again as equity markets get fed up with DB's lack of earnings visibility in the fixed income area, investment banking, asset management, and the weakling Postbank. CEO Cryan getting mega-pressure to perform or to be ejected. Not much he or any management team can do given DB’s weak playing position.


Top Picks: Reversals of Fortune as Former Pristine Cheapens

09/26/2017

Many times relative-value is in the eyes of the beholder. And we provide our views with our Top Picks across US Big Banks, US Regional Banks & European Banks & AT1s. 


Systemic Sirens Song: Equifax Breach - Financial Fraud & Cybersecurity Responses

09/19/2017

Equifax is a Category 5 cybersecuirty & financial fraud storm blasting the financial world. And the Stakeholder Stack of regulators, investors & risk managers doesn't know how to measure and gauge it. VRA provides some common sense approaches to ranking the risks of major systemic global banks. 


Risk Mgt. Chat: Regulatory Right-sizing v. Roll-backs

09/14/2017

The FT's inaugural US Banking Forum focused on banking regulation and whether it has helped or hindered the industry. Explored impacts to FinTech, traditional players and whether the system is safer.


Risk Mgt. Chat: Financial Fraud & CyberSecurity Threats (Audio Link)

09/06/2017

Viola Risk hosted a fascinating discussion from a world authority on Financial Fraud & Cybersecurity Threats. Estimates that half of UK crime is now financial fraud largely perpetrated over the Internet. Culture, surveillance, attention to data & executing on solutions are all key ingredients for better defenses.


Systemic Sirens Song: NYU V-Lab Risk Indicators Exposed, Cloaking Future Risk?

08/18/2017

NYU V-Lab’s SRISK is a useful way to track systemic risk trends and inflection points for banking company meltdowns. Still, it has been dialed down by the general rally in US bank stocks. We explore ways to adjust for this bullish environment by uncloaking the underlying systemic factors that can unexpectedly erupt.


Systemic Sirens Song: Bank Armageddon 10th Anniversary, Anything Learned?

08/07/2017

Break out the champagne as the 10th Anniversary of the Financial Crisis is celebrated this week. Time flies when you are not having credit analysis fun, but the work needed to be done. Review brief history and suggestions for future action.


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