Industry Reports

Top Picks: Reversals of Fortune as Former Pristine Cheapens


Many times relative-value is in the eyes of the beholder. And we provide our views with our Top Picks across US Big Banks, US Regional Banks & European Banks & AT1s. 

Systemic Sirens Song: Equifax Breach - Financial Fraud & Cybersecurity Responses


Equifax is a Category 5 cybersecuirty & financial fraud storm blasting the financial world. And the Stakeholder Stack of regulators, investors & risk managers doesn't know how to measure and gauge it. VRA provides some common sense approaches to ranking the risks of major systemic global banks. 

Risk Mgt. Chat: Regulatory Right-sizing v. Roll-backs


The FT's inaugural US Banking Forum focused on banking regulation and whether it has helped or hindered the industry. Explored impacts to FinTech, traditional players and whether the system is safer.

Risk Mgt. Chat: Financial Fraud & CyberSecurity Threats (Audio Link)


Viola Risk hosted a fascinating discussion from a world authority on Financial Fraud & Cybersecurity Threats. Estimates that half of UK crime is now financial fraud largely perpetrated over the Internet. Culture, surveillance, attention to data & executing on solutions are all key ingredients for better defenses.

Systemic Sirens Song: NYU V-Lab Risk Indicators Exposed, Cloaking Future Risk?


NYU V-Lab’s SRISK is a useful way to track systemic risk trends and inflection points for banking company meltdowns. Still, it has been dialed down by the general rally in US bank stocks. We explore ways to adjust for this bullish environment by uncloaking the underlying systemic factors that can unexpectedly erupt.

Systemic Sirens Song: Bank Armageddon 10th Anniversary, Anything Learned?


Break out the champagne as the 10th Anniversary of the Financial Crisis is celebrated this week. Time flies when you are not having credit analysis fun, but the work needed to be done. Review brief history and suggestions for future action.

Systemic Sirens Song: Monte dei Paschi Swirls Up from Banking Seas, Italy Declares Victory!


The ​Monte dei Paschi saga illustrates all that is wrong in Italian banking & European bank restructuring. Still Italy declares banking victory & investors/reporters take off rest of summer vacation. Mangia & Bere Vino! Monte Monte Monte Intesa Intesa Intesa UniCredit UniCredit UniCredit

Systemic Sirens Song: Scandinavian Bks, SAS or SOS?


​Scandinavian banks may not be as good as they as advertised by the markets as their economic earnings are poor. High wall-like capital levels and low credit noise has helped the image, but we believe they are A-rated. Danske Dankse Dankse DNB DNB DNB Nordea Nordea Nordea Svenska Svenska Svenska Swedbank Swedbank Swedbank SEB SEB SEB

Systemic Sirens Song Alert: Australia Banks, Systemically Fine, Agencies Wrong


Moody's messes up with rating categories for Aussie banks, and we disagree on the housing/consumer debt concerns. Big 4 should weather well given strong economic earnings and low-risk systemic indicators. Buy Big 4 versus Canadian banks of similar ratings. Westpac Westpac Westpac ANZ ANZ ANZ CBA CBA CBA Macquarie Macquarie Macquarie NAB NAB NAB

Big Bank CCAR: No Big Surprises, Pull Capital Rip-cords


Big Bank CCAR was a media yawn, but instructive on how some banks are turning it around like BAC, while others are using shareholder payouts to disguise weak operating metric improvements like Citi. JPM and WFC kick it. Big brokers, GS & MS do well too. Citi Citi Citi BAC BAC BAC JPM JPM JPM WFC WFC WFC GS GS GS MS MS MS COF COF COF AXP AXP AXP

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