Industry Reports

Part 2 of our Viola Risk 2018 Outlook takes a deep dive on consumer loan dynamics across cards, autos, student loans. Can't wait for it to go bad to prepare. Citi Citi Citi Citi Citi Citi Citi BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM DFS DFS DFS DFS DFS DFS DFS COF COF COF COT COF COF COF AXP AXP AXP AXP AXP AXP AXP SYF SYF SYF SYF SYF SYF SYF SYF

Pillar 1 of Systemic Risk Shifts reviews the overall systemic risk landscape as Europe remains vulnerable while US & Canada skate around them. Japan a weak region too. DB DB DB DB DB DB DB CS CS CS CS CS CS CS BARCLAYS BARCLAYS BARCLAY BARCLAYS BARCLAYS BARCLAYS BARCLAYS BNP BNP BNP BNP BNP BNP BNP SOCGEN SOCGEN SOCGEN SOCGEN SOCGEN SOCGEN SOCGEN RBS RBS RBS RBS RBS RBS RBS HSBC HSBC HSBC HSBC HSBC HSBC HSBC UBS UBS UBS UBS UBS UBS UBS SANTANDER SANTANDER SANTANDER SANTANDER SANTANDER SANTANDER SANTANDER JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM JPM CITI CITI CITI CITI CIT CITI CITI BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC BAC GS GS GS GS GS GS GS MS MS MS MS MS MS MS RBC RBC RBC RBC RBC RBC RBC TD TD TD TD TD TD TD COF COF COF COF COF COF COF COF

We showcase a bit of our Viola Risk conference with a review of how Deutsche Bank can resurrect its fortunes with radical merger with Commerzbank. Buy on AT1s as bail-in risk subsides. DB DB DB DB DB DB DB CMZ CMZ CMZ CMZ CMZ CMZ

FinTech & shadow banking is snarling at the traditional bank gates as the barbarians seek to ransack through the profit margins of the old-school players. Still in early-innings, but strong trends emerging. 

Red alert is in the air again as equity markets get fed up with DB's lack of earnings visibility in the fixed income area, investment banking, asset management, and the weakling Postbank. CEO Cryan getting mega-pressure to perform or to be ejected. Not much he or any management team can do given DB’s weak playing position.

Many times relative-value is in the eyes of the beholder. And we provide our views with our Top Picks across US Big Banks, US Regional Banks & European Banks & AT1s. 

Equifax is a Category 5 cybersecuirty & financial fraud storm blasting the financial world. And the Stakeholder Stack of regulators, investors & risk managers doesn't know how to measure and gauge it. VRA provides some common sense approaches to ranking the risks of major systemic global banks. 

The FT's inaugural US Banking Forum focused on banking regulation and whether it has helped or hindered the industry. Explored impacts to FinTech, traditional players and whether the system is safer.

Viola Risk hosted a fascinating discussion from a world authority on Financial Fraud & Cybersecurity Threats. Estimates that half of UK crime is now financial fraud largely perpetrated over the Internet. Culture, surveillance, attention to data & executing on solutions are all key ingredients for better defenses.

NYU V-Lab’s SRISK is a useful way to track systemic risk trends and inflection points for banking company meltdowns. Still, it has been dialed down by the general rally in US bank stocks. We explore ways to adjust for this bullish environment by uncloaking the underlying systemic factors that can unexpectedly erupt.