Industry Reports

Systemic Sirens Song Alert: Australia Banks, Systemically Fine, Agencies Wrong


Moody's messes up with rating categories for Aussie banks, and we disagree on the housing/consumer debt concerns. Big 4 should weather well given strong economic earnings and low-risk systemic indicators. Buy Big 4 versus Canadian banks of similar ratings. Westpac Westpac Westpac ANZ ANZ ANZ CBA CBA CBA Macquarie Macquarie Macquarie NAB NAB NAB

Big Bank CCAR: No Big Surprises, Pull Capital Rip-cords


Big Bank CCAR was a media yawn, but instructive on how some banks are turning it around like BAC, while others are using shareholder payouts to disguise weak operating metric improvements like Citi. JPM and WFC kick it. Big brokers, GS & MS do well too. Citi Citi Citi BAC BAC BAC JPM JPM JPM WFC WFC WFC GS GS GS MS MS MS COF COF COF AXP AXP AXP

Systemic Sirens Song: Italian Bkg Vesuvius Erupts in Veneto, More Drugging of Sr. Unsecured Debt


​The Venice banks sank into the regulatory banking lagoon as Italian state support swoops in. Intesa buys them for a pittance 1 euro. Sr. unsecured debt impairment avoided, but major Euro banks will see more bond volatility due to poor economic earnings. UCG UCG UCG ISP ISP ISP

DFAST 2017: Banks Pass, Stk Payouts Up, Regs Horrified by Trump & CHOICE


The last seven years of DFAST has slimmed down the banks girth better than a Marie Osmond Nutrisystem regime. Really, things are better, but there is always a new round of credit crud threatening the banks waist-lines. citi citi citi bac bac bac gs gs gs jpm jpm jpm ms ms ms amex amex amex cof cof cof pnc pnc pnc usb usb usb

Systemic Sirens Song: Treasury Report, Prime CHOICE for Disemboweling DFA


​Treasury's report is similar to H.R. 10 the Financial CHOICE Act's view that Wall Street's animal-spirits should be unleashed to boostrap US GDP growth thus creating jobs and overall personal wealth. Community banks emphasized, but cover for the capital markets cabals underlying goals.

Euro Bk Contagion 2017: Popular Poops Out, Who’s Next?


European bank contagion can not be ruled out as the Spanish bank events POP-ed the bubble on debt impairment out of line with bail-in rules. We review other major Euro banks and threats to sr. unsecured debt layers. Barclays Barclays Barclays Santander Santander Santander BBVA BBVA BBVA Popular Popular Popular Deutsche Deutsche Deutsche Suisse Suisse Suisee BNP BNP BNP Socgen Socgen SocgenBNP BNP SocGen SocGen

Systemic Sirens Song: Popular Dies, Cr. Suisse Revives, UniCredit ZomBank Zings


​ZomBanks ranz round Europe as the ECB's crushing impact to net interest incomes zhanghs the harmanz. Get out your zombie lexicon for translation. BNP BNP BNP BNP CS CS CS CS santander santander santander santander bbva bbva bbva deutsche deutsche deutsche deutsche barclays barclays barclays ubs ubs ubs hsbc hsbc hsbc rbs rbs rbs lloyds lloyds lloyds agricole agricole agricole unicredit unicredit unicredit unicredit commerz commerz commerz

Special Alert-Systemic Sirens Song: Popular Fails, Bailed Out by Santander, Still Jr. Cap Wipeout


Popular became the least popular bank in Spain as it fails and Santander scoops up remains. Risks to deal abound and POP's jr. cap structure wiped out. Who is next in systemic summer wild-fires in Europe? SAN SAN SAN POP POP POP 

Systemic Sirens Song: Spanish Bk Popular Loses Liquidity, EcoMargin Early Signals


Popular of Spain is giving the European regional systemics a migraine. Economic Margins seem to show early indicator capability as core businesses conking out for Big Spanish banks. Santander Santander Santander BBVA BBVA BBVA Popular Popular Popular

Systemic Sirens Song: Viola Risk & New Constructs, NYU V-Lab needs Economic Earnings IV


Economic earnings analysis key to better fixed income analysis & bond selection, risk management & regulatory oversight. Viola Risk collaborates with New Constructs for best capital structure valuation. S&P misses the mark using NYU V-Lab data on systemic risk with weak scenario analysis lacking no economic earnings inputs.

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