Industry Reports

Euro Banks: Capable of Economic Earnings? Deutsche Bank’s Counterparty Impacts

10/26/2016

European Banks are in a deep funk, with some in a death spiral that will require government intervention. Not good for global bank systemic stability and European bank funding. Strategic models have to change and NOW.


Italian Banking: Finito as Financial Intermediaries?

09/13/2016

Italian Banking is a non sequitur as it has failed in its mission to provide adequate credit to the country’s domestic borrowing companies and retail customers in a well credit risk underwritten way. The solution to the “Italian Banking” situation is NOT a wholesale across-the-board recapitalization of the major banks, but a combination of a “US-style Resolution Trust Corporation” process for the weak and less systemically significant banks such as Monte dei Paschi di Sienna (MDPS). At the same time it is a ring-fencing exercise for the largest Italian bank, UniCredit, whereby it will require a European Union-led “bridge“ credit line that has an equity-like takeout component. 


European Banking Dysfunction: Is There a Way Out?

09/07/2016

European Banking trying to survive the enormous pressures brought on by bad strategies, management and regulatory supervision. Deutsche Bank continues to suffer.


CCAR: Capital Freedom, Not So DFAST!

06/30/2016

Finally we can start our July 4th weekend, as CCAR was released. Despite capital actions for big banks/brokers, most are still mired in EVA black holes. Not good for stock prices.


DFAST’s Faustian Bargain: Capital/Loss Iceberg

06/28/2016

DFAST got swamped by BREXIT, but we review the key concerns from capital to losses that the Fed seems to ignore at the systems peril. Stakeholders stack beware.


TLAC To Rescue: Requirements & Compliance

11/16/2015

The Fed’s proposed TLAC requirements are more stringent than those issued by FSB.  Two U.S. GSIBs already meet requirements according to Fed estimates.  The remaining GSIBs’ estimated shortfalls are probably inflated given large volume of debt and preferred stock issuance and reduction of RWA year-to-date. 


OCC Trading & Derivatives Report: Systemic Conditions Remain

09/30/2015

The OCC’s quarterly report on bank trading & derivative activities showed continued falling trading volumes/notionals trends.  Still, four U.S. GSIB banks dominate the derivatives trading market (90%+), and we wonder if they are becoming a bigger portion of a still sizeable market.  CCAR results & other strategies show that there are still excess company-specific risks and that they present systemic risk to the banking system. 


Conference Chat: SYF and ALLY – Moving Up & Out

09/22/2015

Like millennials finally moving out (kicked out?), SYF and ALLY are both in the process of splitting off from their parents.  Their status as market leaders in their respective businesses and their shared focus on growing their capital base, especially deposit funding, should (literally) pay dividends soon.


As Rates Zoom, Will Banks Face Glee or Gloom?

09/14/2015

We believe that the big banks with more rate challenges regarding their asset/liability management profiles include Bank of America and Citigroup. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo should have less rate challenges than the other two big banks as they have been more conservative in how they structure their rate sensitivities or ran lower investment securities durations. Also, they exhibit much stronger loan origination capability given their market reach and better developed consumer/commercial brands.  On the regional bank side, we are more concerned with KeyCorp and SunTrust. Both banks have noted the impact of their swaps books on their ALM strategy and seem to think that they can smoothly re-rack this posture when rates rise.


U.S. GSIBs: Greek Debt Olympics, Who Finishes Last?

07/07/2015

The Greeks have not had this much summer attention since the 2004 Summer Olympics hosted in Athens.  And instead of awe inspiring athletic prowess, the world is wondering if this is another awful debt episode ending with international counterparties contagion at the finish line.  We say not for the U.S. GSIBs and look at the other domino effect Eurozone & Russia exposures.


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