It was a three-alarm "systemic" fire alert as the Japanese banks released annual earnings. Viola Risk sirens raced to examine the extraordinary amount of systemic risk presented - Mizuho case in point. Mizuho Mizuho Mizuho
Lots of US, Canada, German systemic situations clarified with Wells Fargo, Canadian banks, Deutsche Bank in focus. Joint webinar with Viola Risk and New Constructs available for video replay. RBC RBC RBC BMO BMO BMO NBC NBC NBC TD TD TD BNS BNS BNS CIBC CIBC CIBC DB DB DB deutsche deutsche deutsche Wells Fargo Wells Fargo Wells Fargo wfc wfc wfc
The French are waving the tricolour in victory for the eurozone principals upon the Macron win. Still the French banks, in combination and concentration, are the most systemic in Europe. TBD French GDP growth makes the country the most exposed to systemic banks in Europe. BNP BNP BNP BNP SocGen SocGen SocGen
Systemic banks are on simmer mode as a high profile Canadian alternative mortgage lender spins out of control after regulatory accusations of false applications. Canadian mortgage market bubbly and questions on contagion spreading to other Big Six banks posed by news sources. Viola looks at Vegas odds of instability. TD TD TD CIBC CIBC CIBC BMO BMO BMO BNS BNS BNS NBC NBC NBC RBC RBC RBC
The Sirens are swirling in sovereign-land as France's schizo selection process keeps head-faking the world. US Regional banks' results are the opposite as one barely can stay awake through a conference call. Skip them! France France France USB USB USB PNC PNC PNC Citizens Citizens Citizens Comerica Comerica Comerica Key Key Key suntrust suntrust suntrust regions regions regions rf rf rf sti sti sti bbt bbt bbt cma cma cma cfg cfg cfg
Are two peas in a pod, Credit Suisse & Wells Fargo with both experiencing a breakdown of supervision at the Board level? Wells is taking action, as Credit Suisse sneaks in mega-bonuses even after the back-peddle over weekend. Sell CS stock, Buy WFC. Sell CS debt, Buy WFC longer-dated sub debt.
This week VRA sings about how the media impacts the spin on Deutsche Bank as further analysis shows continued extreme weakness. Zions looks to issue bonds/preferreds as it goes ratings shopping. European elections like a WWF smackdown of the Euro and regional monetary stability.
Launch our weekly Systemic Sirens' Song that will highlight our forward thoughts on systemic financials globally. Credit Suisse's corporate governance and compliance is out of control and cap stack should widen on hightened systemic risks. Launch on Citizens Financial with Buy on Stock and some Bonds. Review 1Q17 Systemic Sirens Movers.
Italian banking is bust, and the desperate search for capital is mostly for naught. Still there is an opportunity for strong economic earning banks, like JPMorgan to do accretive deals.
Trading markets liquidity is affected by many factors. We believe healthy global counterparties characterized by strong economic earnings is key success factor. Layering on AT1/TLAC reg debt is not the answer.