Italian banking is bust, and the desperate search for capital is mostly for naught. Still there is an opportunity for strong economic earning banks, like JPMorgan to do accretive deals.
Trading markets liquidity is affected by many factors. We believe healthy global counterparties characterized by strong economic earnings is key success factor. Layering on AT1/TLAC reg debt is not the answer.
Our Encore version of "Global Systemic Banks 2017 Outlook" updates for the saddened state of Italian banking characterized by intervention & contravention. Also our concerns on Euro bank economic earnings dysfunction.
Substantive Research, a London-based research portal, picks Viola Risk Advisors' "2017 Global Systemic Bank Outlook" as Top 5 Read. See: www.substantiveresearch.com
"The Great Banking Race" is over! and the large European banks have lost out to the Mega-banks in the US, Canada, Japan & China. We review the impacts of Brexit, "The Donald", and rising US interest rates and present "actionable" trades for 2017.
The Great Banking Race is Over as the European banks have lost out from an economic earnings viewpoint and market shares in capital markets. Deutsche Bank extremely vulnerable to German government intervention.
European Banks are in a deep funk, with some in a death spiral that will require government intervention. Not good for global bank systemic stability and European bank funding. Strategic models have to change and NOW.
Just prior to 3Q16 European bank earnings, Viola Risk broadcasted our views on whether the big bank group can generate economic earnings and build economic book value. This is important for Stakeholder Stack valuations.
Italian Banking is a non sequitur as it has failed in its mission to provide adequate credit to the country’s domestic borrowing companies and retail customers in a well credit risk underwritten way. The solution to the “Italian Banking” situation is NOT a wholesale across-the-board recapitalization of the major banks, but a combination of a “US-style Resolution Trust Corporation” process for the weak and less systemically significant banks such as Monte dei Paschi di Sienna (MDPS). At the same time it is a ring-fencing exercise for the largest Italian bank, UniCredit, whereby it will require a European Union-led “bridge“ credit line that has an equity-like takeout component.
European Banking trying to survive the enormous pressures brought on by bad strategies, management and regulatory supervision. Deutsche Bank continues to suffer.