Our Encore version of "Global Systemic Banks 2017 Outlook" updates for the saddened state of Italian banking characterized by intervention & contravention. Also our concerns on Euro bank economic earnings dysfunction.
The Great Banking Race is Over as the European banks have lost out from an economic earnings viewpoint and market shares in capital markets. Deutsche Bank extremely vulnerable to German government intervention.
European Banks are in a deep funk, with some in a death spiral that will require government intervention. Not good for global bank systemic stability and European bank funding. Strategic models have to change and NOW.
Italian Banking is a non sequitur as it has failed in its mission to provide adequate credit to the country’s domestic borrowing companies and retail customers in a well credit risk underwritten way. The solution to the “Italian Banking” situation is NOT a wholesale across-the-board recapitalization of the major banks, but a combination of a “US-style Resolution Trust Corporation” process for the weak and less systemically significant banks such as Monte dei Paschi di Sienna (MDPS). At the same time it is a ring-fencing exercise for the largest Italian bank, UniCredit, whereby it will require a European Union-led “bridge“ credit line that has an equity-like takeout component.
European Banking trying to survive the enormous pressures brought on by bad strategies, management and regulatory supervision. Deutsche Bank continues to suffer.
Finally we can start our July 4th weekend, as CCAR was released. Despite capital actions for big banks/brokers, most are still mired in EVA black holes. Not good for stock prices.
DFAST got swamped by BREXIT, but we review the key concerns from capital to losses that the Fed seems to ignore at the systems peril. Stakeholders stack beware.
The Fed’s proposed TLAC requirements are more stringent than those issued by FSB. Two U.S. GSIBs already meet requirements according to Fed estimates. The remaining GSIBs’ estimated shortfalls are probably inflated given large volume of debt and preferred stock issuance and reduction of RWA year-to-date.
The OCC’s quarterly report on bank trading & derivative activities showed continued falling trading volumes/notionals trends. Still, four U.S. GSIB banks dominate the derivatives trading market (90%+), and we wonder if they are becoming a bigger portion of a still sizeable market. CCAR results & other strategies show that there are still excess company-specific risks and that they present systemic risk to the banking system.
Like millennials finally moving out (kicked out?), SYF and ALLY are both in the process of splitting off from their parents. Their status as market leaders in their respective businesses and their shared focus on growing their capital base, especially deposit funding, should (literally) pay dividends soon.