Topic/Theme Reports

Citi 2Q22: Well Done Jane! Good-all Around!


Citi wowed the investor community as it scored a healthy EPS beat. Service sector results, more succinctly known as treasury and securities processing/services activities faced off well against scaled down investment banking. Move to Buy on Stock, Sell on benchmark bonds. Systemic risk High though we could move to Medium. Counterparty risk Medium. 

Big Banks ALM 2021: Another Weak NII/NIM Year, but 2022 to be Fed-Boosted


ALM is front and center for big bank risks as the Fed fights a rates war against inflation. Positive expectations for fatter margins and rising NII is being offset by a slower to recession economy that could stymie the rate impact improvements. 

Country Risk Chat: Quick Thoughts on Fed Actions


Fed steps up to the tightening plate this early afternoon, and market gauging whether it will be a 50 bps move or a muted 25 bps. Dr. Scott reviews some of the key points to consider with his view placed on 25 bps. 

Country Risk Chat: 2022’s Geopolitical Multiplier Effects - Ten Countries to Watch


Dr. Scott uses his Global News Network (GNN) - style to review the key geopolitical hot spots in almost 10 minutes! From the Western alliance countries to the China/Russia current/former Communist regimes. And from less developed countries to Burrito/Borat-like ones (North Korea), subsribers should not get IBS. Well maybe not! 

Country Risk Chat: Biden, Xi, Energy & Lebanon


Dr. Scott MacDonald pays tribute to a true American patriot, former Secretary of State, General Colin Powell who passed away this week. Provides an update on the Biden Infrastructure Plan, U.S. supply chain challenges, China geopolitical pressures and domestic woes. Also, energy bullet points and the possible emergence of a new natural gas cartel.

The National Interest: “America Had Better Get Used to Rising Inflation”


Dr. Scott goes into great depth analyzing the inflation factors that have led to economic concerns regarding supply chain issues, energy & labor shortages, and housing affordability in the U.S. As appeared in the National Interest , October 18, 2021. 

Systemic Siren: Hedge Fund Migraines for Prime Lenders


Latest hedge fund problem/liquidation shows how bank risk is still opaque. Need other tools for investors/risk managers to assess bank resiliency. Viola Risk's systemic shortfall breakevens is an answer.  

Country Risk Chat: The Certainty of Uncertainty, How to Manage


Dr. Scott & crew discusses the major U.S. trends with new President Biden calling the shots. Touches on Fed and EM investment flows. Deeper dives on Germany and Venezuela. 

Country Risk Chat: Bye-Bye Crappier 2020! Hello Happier 2021!


Dr. Scott winds up the year with his global economic outlook for 2021 and impacts to markets. The decline of COVID-19 and the U.S. political transition are front and center for 1H21. Both U.S. and European economies to pick up over course of 2021 making a positive foundation for market performance. 

Country Risk Chat: Holidays Come Early for the Markets


Dr. Scott gives his global economic outlook for 2021 focusing on the US, Europe and the tensions between Australia and China. Fast and furioius growth in November should trend forward in 2021 as Covid-19 is mitigated by the host of vaccines. 

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