Topic/Theme Reports

4Q21 Big Regionals: USB, PNC, TFC – Waiting for Rate Hikes


Big regionals waiting for the Fed to hike rates to garner NIM/NII benefits to EPS. Loan growth still sluggish, but should pick up with economic improvement. Buy on USB & PNC stocks. TFC has good bond relative value. Still waiting on COF earnings, but its economic earnings compare favorably.

BAC 4Q21: Back in Business – Deposits Valuable Again


After several years of stock disappointment both pre- and post-pandemic, BAC seems to have regained its mojo in major growth areas. Consumer is growing again and it has big expectations for its massive deposit base kicking in NII. And wealth management still on tear given good market conditions. Continue Buy on stock, Sell on bonds. Regulatory risk is Very Low as counterparty risk is Low. 

Country Risk Chat: 2022’s Geopolitical Multiplier Effects - Ten Countries to Watch


Dr. Scott uses his Global News Network (GNN) - style to review the key geopolitical hot spots in almost 10 minutes! From the Western alliance countries to the China/Russia current/former Communist regimes. And from less developed countries to Burrito/Borat-like ones (North Korea), subsribers should not get IBS. Well maybe not! 

Country Risk Chat: Biden, Xi, Energy & Lebanon


Dr. Scott MacDonald pays tribute to a true American patriot, former Secretary of State, General Colin Powell who passed away this week. Provides an update on the Biden Infrastructure Plan, U.S. supply chain challenges, China geopolitical pressures and domestic woes. Also, energy bullet points and the possible emergence of a new natural gas cartel.

The National Interest: “America Had Better Get Used to Rising Inflation”


Dr. Scott goes into great depth analyzing the inflation factors that have led to economic concerns regarding supply chain issues, energy & labor shortages, and housing affordability in the U.S. As appeared in the National Interest , October 18, 2021. 

Systemic Siren: Hedge Fund Migraines for Prime Lenders


Latest hedge fund problem/liquidation shows how bank risk is still opaque. Need other tools for investors/risk managers to assess bank resiliency. Viola Risk's systemic shortfall breakevens is an answer.  

Country Risk Chat: The Certainty of Uncertainty, How to Manage


Dr. Scott & crew discusses the major U.S. trends with new President Biden calling the shots. Touches on Fed and EM investment flows. Deeper dives on Germany and Venezuela. 

Country Risk Chat: Bye-Bye Crappier 2020! Hello Happier 2021!


Dr. Scott winds up the year with his global economic outlook for 2021 and impacts to markets. The decline of COVID-19 and the U.S. political transition are front and center for 1H21. Both U.S. and European economies to pick up over course of 2021 making a positive foundation for market performance. 

Country Risk Chat: Holidays Come Early for the Markets


Dr. Scott gives his global economic outlook for 2021 focusing on the US, Europe and the tensions between Australia and China. Fast and furioius growth in November should trend forward in 2021 as Covid-19 is mitigated by the host of vaccines. 

Country Risk Chat: Election Agita: Biden Won, Trump Furious, Legal Landmines?


The US Presidential Election is over, but is it? So says Dr. Scott with his early reads on upcoming foreign and economic policy under the President-elect Biden administration. Still, legal challenges can not be ruled out causing market volatility. China still a rising super-power threat with Biden more similar to Trump on how to handle. Europe elated as Biden will give them the bear-hug they desperately needed. 

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