Topic/Theme Reports

MS 2Q21: Durability Trounces Windfall Every Time


MS posted an excellent economic earnings quarter which showcased the diversity and revenues durability of the firm. Big change from 5 years ago & we give credit to CEO Gorman with his vision to transform company and then executing on it. Buy Stock. Sell Bonds. Regulatory & Counterparty risks Low.

Systemic Siren: Hedge Fund Migraines for Prime Lenders


Latest hedge fund problem/liquidation shows how bank risk is still opaque. Need other tools for investors/risk managers to assess bank resiliency. Viola Risk's systemic shortfall breakevens is an answer.  

Country Risk Chat: The Certainty of Uncertainty, How to Manage


Dr. Scott & crew discusses the major U.S. trends with new President Biden calling the shots. Touches on Fed and EM investment flows. Deeper dives on Germany and Venezuela. 

Country Risk Chat: Bye-Bye Crappier 2020! Hello Happier 2021!


Dr. Scott winds up the year with his global economic outlook for 2021 and impacts to markets. The decline of COVID-19 and the U.S. political transition are front and center for 1H21. Both U.S. and European economies to pick up over course of 2021 making a positive foundation for market performance. 

Country Risk Chat: Holidays Come Early for the Markets


Dr. Scott gives his global economic outlook for 2021 focusing on the US, Europe and the tensions between Australia and China. Fast and furioius growth in November should trend forward in 2021 as Covid-19 is mitigated by the host of vaccines. 

Country Risk Chat: Election Agita: Biden Won, Trump Furious, Legal Landmines?


The US Presidential Election is over, but is it? So says Dr. Scott with his early reads on upcoming foreign and economic policy under the President-elect Biden administration. Still, legal challenges can not be ruled out causing market volatility. China still a rising super-power threat with Biden more similar to Trump on how to handle. Europe elated as Biden will give them the bear-hug they desperately needed. 

Country Risk Chat: Biden Victory? Market Volatility!


Dr. Scott scans the presidential race landscape for signs of economic and markets life post election. With a Biden win, that he leans towards, taxes will rise considerably with volatilie & downward stock markets to follow.  Bond markets will welcome fiscal responsibility, but could get hammered if the economy falters first. 

Country Risk Chat: China & US - Workin’ on Night Moves, Waking Up to Sounds of Thunder


Dr. Scott continues his Howard Cosell-esqe commentary on the U.S. elections as the relationship between the U.S. and China takes center stage. The two sumo wrestler nations are trying to tip each other over in their quest for global hegemony. China goes on U.S. Treasury diet to upset U.S. physical dominance. 

Country Risk Chat:US Elections, Pls Mr Postman:Deliver the Election, de Sooner de Better!


Dr. Scott looks at the Biden-Harris ticket and gives it a stamp of approval; with President Trump squashing the Post Office as snail mail goes crustacean subnation. It will be quite a political food-fight as the USA goes from Big Apple brightness to Banana Republic frightness. 

Country Risk Chat: USA’s a Go-Kart Economy: Some Mo-Mo, Will It Fly off Track?


The US economy is in a dichotomy state between the suffering from truely high unemployment & depressed GDP, and the stock market surge led by the Big Tech stocks. Which way will the US economic go-kart swerves in the end is a centripetal force question to be answered 

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