The Dutch elections drew a sigh of relief for the EU establishment, but the opposition gained seats and may return with a vengeance next time. Meanwhile, the French elections becoming a MMA contest between Independent and Frexit forces. Should be a celebreity death match finish.
Recently returned from France, Dr. Scott gives his birds-eye view of the French election landscape. Macron still his favorite, although Le Pen gaining ground. Should be a palpitante course de chaveaux.
Our "galloping gourmand" country risk analyst, Dr. Scott, gives his "man on the street" view of the brewing political volatility in France. Move over AC Coops, S&M is on the real gastronomical & political news.
France filleted by high political drama with Le Pen and the field jockying for position. High debt, terrorist acts, nationalist awakenings, oiled up by the Trumpster, are frying up bond and ratings pressures.
President Trump's Executive Order on Financial Markets regulation could unleash the wild-west conditions of the mid-2000s. Or improve market trading liquidity and restore normalcy to the US resi- mortgage markets. We explore the impacts.
President Trump's twitter tirades are adding another brick of ratings risk to a possible "walled-in" Mexcio. Weakness across Caribbean nations including Barbados and Belize adds to bondholder woes in EM.
A new wave of EM sovereign & corporate bonds flowing to meet the demand of yield starved fixed income investors. We review issuance for the Gulf States, Africa, China & Mexico. Pres. Trump throws a curve ball into trade equations.
Greater political risk could trump stronger economic expansion for many EM countries. Brazil & Russia could improve, while China and smaller EMs could deteriorate.
Markets players behind schedule prepping for new Intitial/Variation Margin rules for non-centrally cleared derivatives. "Last moment" actions pose risks to smoothly functioning markets. And what to do with Deutsche Bank counterparty risks where market players are slowly backing away, but could take more "last moment "actions leading to systemic risk amplification.
The US Federal Reserve acted in the most obvious way with a tiny 25 bps increase in the Fed Funds rate. Viola Risk Advisors agrees with New Constructs views that the Feds rates impact much less and lags the bond markets. Mortgages will be key to the magnitude in rate rises to come in 2017.