A new wave of EM sovereign & corporate bonds flowing to meet the demand of yield starved fixed income investors. We review issuance for the Gulf States, Africa, China & Mexico. Pres. Trump throws a curve ball into trade equations.
Greater political risk could trump stronger economic expansion for many EM countries. Brazil & Russia could improve, while China and smaller EMs could deteriorate.
Markets players behind schedule prepping for new Intitial/Variation Margin rules for non-centrally cleared derivatives. "Last moment" actions pose risks to smoothly functioning markets. And what to do with Deutsche Bank counterparty risks where market players are slowly backing away, but could take more "last moment "actions leading to systemic risk amplification.
The US Federal Reserve acted in the most obvious way with a tiny 25 bps increase in the Fed Funds rate. Viola Risk Advisors agrees with New Constructs views that the Feds rates impact much less and lags the bond markets. Mortgages will be key to the magnitude in rate rises to come in 2017.
Italy's "NO" Referendum reverberates through the EU as disastrous Italian banks quake and the euro's future in further jeopardy.
As the Trump Administration takes shape and form, the Italian's soon vote on their referendum which could then sway the global markets. And then the China property & credit bubble continues to expand.
This conference call transcript reviews our views on the new President-elect Trump's impacts to Global Banks. Still hate the Eurobank sector, but some buying in Spanish banks, Barclays, UBS.
Trump administration-elect is filling positions and this leads to divisiveness and demonstrations. We review the 'politics and poker' impacts worldwide.
First thoughts on the Trump Era. Macro impacts and market reviews. Conference call tomorrow @ 10:30am NYC time on impacts to Global Systemic Banks.
In front of the US election hysteria or histerical reality TV-like revelations, we offer our views on the macro factors and Country Risk challenges of the next Presidential Administration. Risk & Volatility are the only certains in an uncertain world.