Country risk still rocked on even though the stock market took a snooze rollicking in the summer hideaways. Still, volatility should rear its ugly head as we head into the Fall 2016 with US presidential elections and Fed policy about to inflect.
As the #1 female pop star of all-time, Madonna sang in the '80s, "we are living in a material world!!"! Yet it is hard to get the world's material desires fulfilled in a negative interest rate world! Madonna's sage reply to that was, "If they don't give me proper credit, I just walk away!" And the question remains to investors is whether they will run away from the stock & bond market bubbles driven by negative yields & whether it all ends spectacularly painful, yet again, yet again.
Russia amps up the geopolitical technos with House DJ Putin dialing up the BPMs in the European EDM dynamics on the Black Sea. But really, the Russia/Ukraine gyrations should impact geopolitical fears going into the Fall seaon. Another "Debbie Downer" for debt/equity markets.
Our Viola Risk Roundup looks at the geopolitical & country risk factors that will impact the macro environment and markets over the next 6 months. First, is a deep dive on the European & EU conundrum with negative rates failing to reboot regional economic growth. Combinations of bad banking, poor fertility rates and gigantic debt loads are drowning the great region into a more severe economic quagmire.
Turkey will continue to headline with political drama & questions over the geopolitical situation on Europe’s southern flank. Turkey's emerging new order has major challenges ahead which will pressure cooker its sovereign ratings & currency.
Dr. MacDonald travels the globe reviewing the key country risk drivers of economic and investor/risk manager performance. Brexit, US Fed, BOJ, Euro banks, China, Turkey, Brazil.
Dr. Scott MacDonald talks turkey on Turkey. He is a contributing analyst to Viola Risk Advisors & Chief Economist for Smith’s Research & Gradings.
Dr. Scott MacDonald discusses the interplay between Italian sovereign risk, Italian politics and his view of the impacts to Italian banking. A witches' brew of risk!
Friday's double witching hour of BREXIT & DFAST led to gyrations in the debt/equity markets. Viola reviews the trending threats to the US Bank sector.
Bank of America’s CEO Moynihan discusses the company’s overhauled business and measured growth strategies. CCAR issues remain qualitative in nature as BAC works to improve risk modeling across the enterprise and through business lines. TLAC shortfall appears manageable.