Our Viola Risk Roundup looks at the geopolitical & country risk factors that will impact the macro environment and markets over the next 6 months. First, is a deep dive on the European & EU conundrum with negative rates failing to reboot regional economic growth. Combinations of bad banking, poor fertility rates and gigantic debt loads are drowning the great region into a more severe economic quagmire.
Turkey will continue to headline with political drama & questions over the geopolitical situation on Europe’s southern flank. Turkey's emerging new order has major challenges ahead which will pressure cooker its sovereign ratings & currency.
Dr. MacDonald travels the globe reviewing the key country risk drivers of economic and investor/risk manager performance. Brexit, US Fed, BOJ, Euro banks, China, Turkey, Brazil.
Dr. Scott MacDonald talks turkey on Turkey. He is a contributing analyst to Viola Risk Advisors & Chief Economist for Smith’s Research & Gradings.
Dr. Scott MacDonald discusses the interplay between Italian sovereign risk, Italian politics and his view of the impacts to Italian banking. A witches' brew of risk!
Friday's double witching hour of BREXIT & DFAST led to gyrations in the debt/equity markets. Viola reviews the trending threats to the US Bank sector.
Bank of America’s CEO Moynihan discusses the company’s overhauled business and measured growth strategies. CCAR issues remain qualitative in nature as BAC works to improve risk modeling across the enterprise and through business lines. TLAC shortfall appears manageable.
JPMorgan Chase’s CFO Lake covered a lot of ground from interest rate risks to 2016 growth outlooks, to CCAR & TLAC expectations to consumer payment dynamics. Overall the company believes it can deal with all the curveballs presented by the evolving landscape.
Citigroup’s CFO looks forward to more normalized results as its legal/regulatory troubles fade in the rear-view mirror. CCAR process working better and rate risk appears to be contained. Cards & Citigold are growth initiatives. C Citi Citigroup
Wells Fargo’s CEO Stumpf wraps up another good year of market leadership across many key consumer and commercial sectors in the U.S. Paving the way for new President and COO Tim Sloan to take the reins.