Topic/Theme Reports

Country Risk Chat: Dark Clouds Are Coming


Dr. Scott reviews the US economic weakness as record numbers of Americans are unemployed, and it looks like a slow recovery into 2021. And interplays the political friction as US presidential electioneering ramps up and the debate on US state budget deficits and underfunded state pensions. Europe fiscal challenges and difficulties funding through as well. 

Country Risk Chat: Hanging On to Our Way of Life


The US economy is changing at a rapid clip with contraction & unemployment rising to possible Great Depression levels. Dr. Scott looks at the structural changes and financial metric implications, More US downgrades ahead? Also, Korea's missing Kim & geopolitcal impacts. And a Caribbean economic update.

Country Risk Chat: Tearing It All Down? IMF & European Discord


Dr. Scott gives his views of the IMF economic projections for 2020 to 2021. And the discord between the US and the WHO as nonproductive in a world that needs unity to combat the pandemic. Europe not unified on Italy and other indebted country packages. 

Country Risk Chat: Coronavirus, Sovereign Ratings & Oil


The Corvid-19 pandemic is wreaking havoc on sovereign credit ratings across the globe. The US is struggling  the biggest outbreak and pressure on its debt and economic underpinnings. Could lead to rating outlook to downgrade changes. We examine other impacted countries like Italy, the UK. And the oil countries of Mexico, Russia and Saudi Arabia. Australia hit by a falloff in trade with China as well. 

Country Risk Chat: CORVID-19 Crashes Out of China


Just back from Italy, Dr. Scott takes another look at the coronavirus outbreak across Italy, Europe and the West. Gives his outlook on GDP pullbacks and other impacts to supply chains and markets. 

Country Risk Chat: Coronavirus & Copper, Not Happy Together


Coronavirus slows down China's industrial appetite for commodities and especially copper. We look at the knock-on effects to export dependent countries such as Chile and Peru. And wrap up on the Irish elections with Sinn Fein at the top of the results. 

Country Risk Chat: China Virus Slowdown, US Primaries/ Election Season, Brexit Unshackled


Coronavirus spreads in China and around world and we review the growth prospects in China and globally. We reflect on the primary season kicking off in the Iowa caucuses and chance of the Democratic candidates versus President Trump. And Brexit ramifications for UK growth and trade and impacts to the Scottish indy movement.

Country Risk Chat: China & Coronavirus – Market Impacts; Bolivia’s Tilt, Locusts Invade


The coronavirus from China is already impacting world stock markets and could impact economic growth in China and abroad. We explore the luxury goods market impacts. Bolivia has a new tilt away from Cuba. And locusts continue to threaten food supplies in northeastern Africa. 

Country Risk Chat: IMF Global Growth View, China, Hong Kong


We review the IMF global growth view for 2020. Further review the low birth rates in China and impact to growth. Hong Kong downgrade impacts. And more on Suriname's large oil discovery and sovereign risk effects. 

Country Risk Chat: Fishing for Momo: China Trade Deal(s) v. Food Price Inflation & Iran


Markets performed well as some geopoliticals like the China trade war settled down in phase 1. But food price inflation driven by African Swine Flu and a rapidly unstable Iran crank up the risk. 

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