We review the IMF global growth view for 2020. Further review the low birth rates in China and impact to growth. Hong Kong downgrade impacts. And more on Suriname's large oil discovery and sovereign risk effects.
Markets performed well as some geopoliticals like the China trade war settled down in phase 1. But food price inflation driven by African Swine Flu and a rapidly unstable Iran crank up the risk.
We kick off the country risk chat year with a look at the repurcussions from the US assassination of the top Iranian general. And how aging demographics are driving the debt issuance and investment trends. Then the European growth outlook and ECB chief Lagarde's impact. And Libya becoming more of a geopolitical chat point.
The US economy & markets should continue to chug along in 2020 despite the political friction with impeachment. And elections should not disrupt as well. UK proceeds with Brexit in January. And N. Korea keeps the geoplitical tensions high.
Heading into year end, Dr. Scott comments on negative yielding soveregin debt and US Fed policies on that matter. And wraps up with his view on the UK election outcomes with Conservatives holding on to power. Germany's political dynamics. And lastly on Suriname's politics and China instrusions.
Mike Bloomberg jumps into Democratic presidential race with media blitz and billionaire questions from the left of the party. Hong Kong local council elections vote more democracy as Beijing plots next moves. UK moves closer to PM/Parliament votes and Brexit decisions.
This issue comments on the US/China trade dynamics, US presidential impeachment potential and market impacts, US Democratic candidate outlooks, German economics and government policy, and Spanish parliamentary election results and outlook.
Country Risk Chat: Markets Rally with US Political Tussles, UK Elections Coming, Saudi Aramco Update
Despite President Trump impeachment trends pushed by Dems, US economy is buoyant and stock markets continue to rally. UK Parliament elections and Brexit decision awaits in December. Saudi Aramco prepares record size setting IPO. And more on Euro bank money laundering and what regulators are doing to prevent.
Geopolitical winds swirl, but the stock markets want to ride the highs. The Feds rate actions are key to this ebullient equities environment. And then two countries at cross-roads as Argentina trys to avoid a debt driven recession/depression and Vietnam rides the China relo-trade boom.
Cappuccino, China, Green Bonds and Dominica. A strange brew of country risk topics. But frothy, less coffee substance, nonetheless. Expect slow growth and more coffee grinds.