Topic/Theme Reports

Country Risk Chat: Tearing It All Down? IMF & European Discord


Dr. Scott gives his views of the IMF economic projections for 2020 to 2021. And the discord between the US and the WHO as nonproductive in a world that needs unity to combat the pandemic. Europe not unified on Italy and other indebted country packages. 

Country Risk Chat: Coronavirus, Sovereign Ratings & Oil


The Corvid-19 pandemic is wreaking havoc on sovereign credit ratings across the globe. The US is struggling  the biggest outbreak and pressure on its debt and economic underpinnings. Could lead to rating outlook to downgrade changes. We examine other impacted countries like Italy, the UK. And the oil countries of Mexico, Russia and Saudi Arabia. Australia hit by a falloff in trade with China as well. 

Country Risk Chat: CORVID-19 Crashes Out of China


Just back from Italy, Dr. Scott takes another look at the coronavirus outbreak across Italy, Europe and the West. Gives his outlook on GDP pullbacks and other impacts to supply chains and markets. 

Country Risk Chat: Coronavirus & Copper, Not Happy Together


Coronavirus slows down China's industrial appetite for commodities and especially copper. We look at the knock-on effects to export dependent countries such as Chile and Peru. And wrap up on the Irish elections with Sinn Fein at the top of the results. 

Country Risk Chat: China Virus Slowdown, US Primaries/ Election Season, Brexit Unshackled


Coronavirus spreads in China and around world and we review the growth prospects in China and globally. We reflect on the primary season kicking off in the Iowa caucuses and chance of the Democratic candidates versus President Trump. And Brexit ramifications for UK growth and trade and impacts to the Scottish indy movement.

Country Risk Chat: China & Coronavirus – Market Impacts; Bolivia’s Tilt, Locusts Invade


The coronavirus from China is already impacting world stock markets and could impact economic growth in China and abroad. We explore the luxury goods market impacts. Bolivia has a new tilt away from Cuba. And locusts continue to threaten food supplies in northeastern Africa. 

Country Risk Chat: IMF Global Growth View, China, Hong Kong


We review the IMF global growth view for 2020. Further review the low birth rates in China and impact to growth. Hong Kong downgrade impacts. And more on Suriname's large oil discovery and sovereign risk effects. 

Country Risk Chat: Fishing for Momo: China Trade Deal(s) v. Food Price Inflation & Iran


Markets performed well as some geopoliticals like the China trade war settled down in phase 1. But food price inflation driven by African Swine Flu and a rapidly unstable Iran crank up the risk. 

Country Risk Chat: Geopolitics Heat Up, Will the Market’s Party Continue?


We kick off the country risk chat year with a look at the repurcussions from the US assassination of the top Iranian general. And how aging demographics are driving the debt issuance and investment trends. Then the European growth outlook and ECB chief Lagarde's impact. And Libya becoming more of a geopolitical chat point.

Country Risk Chat: 2020 Outlook - US President Impeachment/Elections, UK Brexit, N. Korea Dynamics


The US economy & markets should continue to chug along in 2020 despite the political friction with impeachment. And elections should not disrupt as well. UK proceeds with Brexit in January. And N. Korea keeps the geoplitical ​tensions high. 

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