Topic/Theme Reports
Country Risk Chat: Europe, The Old Man of the World
Europe is limping along and would someone please put it out of its misery? It's mean, cruel and heartless to continue the ECB's flawed over-easing monetary policy. Just killing the banking system & forcing it to do speculative and unsavory activities. AML & KYC are foreign phrases in the Eurozone. Need to get compliance-real or else no one will deal.
Country Risk Chat: More Storms Ahead: Trump-Congress Spats, Cash Heads to Sidelines
February will out-storm January as geopolitical nor'easters hit. Trump/Congress friction heats up the globe. While ex-US economic slowdowns make GDP conditions frigid.
Country Risk Chat: European Outlook: Goulash, Galoshes, Ghoulish
We put on our galoshes to face the European election & political storms. With a hearty debt goulash to digest across the issuance calendars, it may make for a ghoulish year for investors & risk managers alike.
Country Risk Chat: Trump/Powell Sumo Wrestling Clench, Brexit/Italy Stench, Macron Monkey-Wrench
2019 has the stench of more credit volatility from the macro big picture down to the industry/company levels. Dr. Scott reflects on the forward look for the Fed/Trump rates debate, the ongoing Brexit pileup, and "Paris is burning" as nationalism takes hold across Europe. And the China/US tariff trade wars. Bonne Chance mes amis!
Country Risk Chat: G20 Summit, French Friction, Russia/Ukraine Conflict?
Big week for sovereign chatter as the G20 Summit gets rockin on the 30th. Sino, Saudi issues top of mind on trade, oil, and assassinations. Macron's anti-nationalism challenged by rambunctious Yellow Vests. Russia amps up its naval intimidation of Ukraine interests.
Country Risk Chat: US/China Trade Scrums, UK Brexit Blues, Italian Debt Worries
Investors want certainty, but the global dynamics deny this! With the US/China trade tussle becoming a more vicious scrum. And the UK and Italy gyrating the Euro regions economics with Brexit and spending/debt strategies, the landscape for 2019 seems shaky at best. Scott gives his seasoned eyes views on how to navigate the upcoming volatility for bond investing.
Country Risk Chat: Brexit, USMCA, Asia/Middle East EM
We go around the horn of Brexit, USMCA and Asia/Middle East sovereign issues. The Brexit show continues, USMCA makes Canada/Mexico better buys. India should hold ratings.
Country Risk Chat: Brazil Elections, Another Populist Showdown
Brazil's presidential elections will usher in populist choices that will have to deal with difficult economic conditions. We review the terrain.
Country Risk Chat: US Growth, LatAm Outlook & Zimbabwe on the Caribbean
US economic growth and tariff policies setting the tone for global economic growth. We review the US situation and spillovers. Then look at Latin American & Caribbean growth. And end on the Venezuela inflation catastrophe with comparisons to Weimer Germany & Zimbabwe.
Country Risk Chat: Of Black Cats & Chickens - Italy, Turkey, Trade Wars & US Growth
Better US GDP growth endangered by trade war reality and rhetoric. Italy politics continue to be choppy and Turkey emerges as top EM risk.