Rising rates, global trade war rhetoric, uncertain electoral politics and other geopolitical risks increasing country risk volatility climate. Stormy conditions a threat in Italy, Japan, Russia, Turkey, China and EM zone.
Italy becomes a euro hot spot again as the eurosceptic parties gained a majority of the votes. Though hampered by power outages in Westchester County, Dr. Scott forges ahead with his quick takes on possible government scenarios for Italy.
Can Europe unhinge as ECB backs away from its decade old uber-money flex stance. Italian election & German coalition forming continues to rattle the geopoliticals. Brazil in flux with pensions unsolved and its upcoming elections.
The world is awash in liquidity from central banks and now upcoming higher yielding maturities looking for a yieldy home. Step right up to Brazil, Venezuela and China for roulette placers.
VRA's country strategist, Dr. Scott MacDonald, gives his outlook for country risk across the globe. Likes Brazil and KSA bonds, down on China, Italy, Spain & UK. Safe harbors with US/Scandinavian banks.
Country Risk in 2018 will be dominated by the reversal of the Europe bull trade on political volatility, China eco-vol, and EM looking more attractive with global economic growth. Preview of 2018 Viola Risk Conference views set for Thursday, November 16 in NYC.
Hot winds & storms swirled into the northwestern hemisphere bringing catastrophic damage to Houstion, parts of Florida and much of the Caribbean. Europe has its own political whirlwinds with Brexit and German elections bringing agency downgrades and far-right politics to the forefront. Kuridstan becomes a factor in Middle East dessert diplomacy.
Viola Risk Advisors hosts its first live presentation reviewing its "2018 Capital Structure & Risk Mgt. Outlook" for Global Banks, Sovereigns & EM countries. Special guest speaker on equity valuation tools for enhanced fixed income & risk mgt. performance.
The stormy hurricane season in the Gulf/Caribbean region tests the tourism trade-winds that are essential to the islands economic health. Germany & China consider leadership decisions, but incumbents seem to be shoe-ins.
Flare points continue to abound in Venezuela & along the China-India border. The Game of Thrones Season 7 is over, but not so for political brinkmanship in Europe & the US.