We put on our galoshes to face the European election & political storms. With a hearty debt goulash to digest across the issuance calendars, it may make for a ghoulish year for investors & risk managers alike.
2019 has the stench of more credit volatility from the macro big picture down to the industry/company levels. Dr. Scott reflects on the forward look for the Fed/Trump rates debate, the ongoing Brexit pileup, and "Paris is burning" as nationalism takes hold across Europe. And the China/US tariff trade wars. Bonne Chance mes amis!
Big week for sovereign chatter as the G20 Summit gets rockin on the 30th. Sino, Saudi issues top of mind on trade, oil, and assassinations. Macron's anti-nationalism challenged by rambunctious Yellow Vests. Russia amps up its naval intimidation of Ukraine interests.
Investors want certainty, but the global dynamics deny this! With the US/China trade tussle becoming a more vicious scrum. And the UK and Italy gyrating the Euro regions economics with Brexit and spending/debt strategies, the landscape for 2019 seems shaky at best. Scott gives his seasoned eyes views on how to navigate the upcoming volatility for bond investing.
We go around the horn of Brexit, USMCA and Asia/Middle East sovereign issues. The Brexit show continues, USMCA makes Canada/Mexico better buys. India should hold ratings.
Brazil's presidential elections will usher in populist choices that will have to deal with difficult economic conditions. We review the terrain.
US economic growth and tariff policies setting the tone for global economic growth. We review the US situation and spillovers. Then look at Latin American & Caribbean growth. And end on the Venezuela inflation catastrophe with comparisons to Weimer Germany & Zimbabwe.
Better US GDP growth endangered by trade war reality and rhetoric. Italy politics continue to be choppy and Turkey emerges as top EM risk.
Italy risk erupts as politicals incite the financial markets. Still, tough decisions on both will continue to make waves in the markets.
EM risk fires up with Venezuela's re-election of President Maduro. Argentina looking for debt line to service heavy debt load. Brazil holding in. And Italy going populist. Egypt gets by with a little help from Gulf friends.