VRA's country strategist, Dr. Scott MacDonald, gives his outlook for country risk across the globe. Likes Brazil and KSA bonds, down on China, Italy, Spain & UK. Safe harbors with US/Scandinavian banks.
Country Risk in 2018 will be dominated by the reversal of the Europe bull trade on political volatility, China eco-vol, and EM looking more attractive with global economic growth. Preview of 2018 Viola Risk Conference views set for Thursday, November 16 in NYC.
Hot winds & storms swirled into the northwestern hemisphere bringing catastrophic damage to Houstion, parts of Florida and much of the Caribbean. Europe has its own political whirlwinds with Brexit and German elections bringing agency downgrades and far-right politics to the forefront. Kuridstan becomes a factor in Middle East dessert diplomacy.
Viola Risk Advisors hosts its first live presentation reviewing its "2018 Capital Structure & Risk Mgt. Outlook" for Global Banks, Sovereigns & EM countries. Special guest speaker on equity valuation tools for enhanced fixed income & risk mgt. performance.
The stormy hurricane season in the Gulf/Caribbean region tests the tourism trade-winds that are essential to the islands economic health. Germany & China consider leadership decisions, but incumbents seem to be shoe-ins.
Flare points continue to abound in Venezuela & along the China-India border. The Game of Thrones Season 7 is over, but not so for political brinkmanship in Europe & the US.
While August is traditionally a get-away month for the risk mgt. set, the risk still wants to play and needs to be attended to. We review the hot spots including NoKo, Venezuela & Russia war games. Still have Euro trade on, as DC tweets away the summer.
Dr. Scott reviews the European region's upcoming election & economic landscape. German & Italian elections and France's new government and economic prospects. Constructive on the European CDS trade.
Viola Risk will be hosting a Country Risk Conference Call on Wednesday, August 2 @ 11AM NYC time. Dr. Scott MacDonald will review the Euro Dynamics for the Fall Season including: German & Italian elections, France with Macron and UK Brexit outlooks. A sprinkling of China, Japan, Korea & Venezuela for good measure. Contact email@example.com for call-in details.
Italy ingested in-depth as its political landscape is as firm as a bowl of spaghetti. Greece rebound & Brexit outbound in spot-light. Stay tuned for Country Risk ConfCall dial-in details for August 2 @ 11am NYC time.